CANDIDATES’ BUDGET PROPOSALS AND THE DEFICIT

ABSTRACT: Both Presidential candidates, Obama and Romney, have put forward tax and budget proposals that they say will reduce the deficit. Obama’s tax and spending proposals would reduce the deficit by about one quarter. Romney’s proposals cannot be reasonably expected to reduce the deficit. Furthermore, they are likely to increase the deficit and the already high levels of inequality in income and wealth.

FULL POST: Both Presidential candidates, Obama and Romney, have put forward tax and budget proposals that they say will reduce the deficit. Obama has specified tax increases and a cut to military spending that would begin to reduce the deficit. Romney says his tax proposals would be revenue neutral, although he fails to specify how he would offset his tax cuts, and he promises to increase military spending. He asserts that his proposals would produce economic growth that would increase tax revenue and reduce the deficit; however, there is no credible evidence for that assertion. (Note: President G. W. Bush’s tax cuts, increases in military spending, and promises of economic growth that would pay for them are what began the process of turning a federal government surplus into deficits.)

Obama would let the Bush tax cuts on income over $250,000 expire and would also restore or increase taxes on unearned income (i.e., capital gains, dividends, and interest). He has also proposed limiting deductions and exclusions from income, as well as implementing the “Buffett Rule,” so that households with incomes over $1 million would at least pay taxes at the rate that middle class families do. These measures would generate roughly $200 billion per year in additional revenue, reducing the deficit by one-fifth. [1]

Obama has also proposed reducing the $700 billion military budget by about $50 billion per year as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq wind down. Together, these tax and spending proposals would reduce the deficit by about one quarter.

Romney proposes keeping the Bush tax cuts and further reducing tax rates on earned income by one-fifth. He would maintain even lower tax rates on unearned income than earned income. Overall, these proposals would reduce income tax revenue by about $400 billion per year. Romney says he will make up for the lost revenue by reducing tax deductions and credits, and that the well-off will continue to pay at least the same amount in taxes. He says would do this by limiting total deductions and credits on a tax return to a fixed dollar amount and has mentioned amounts ranging from $17,000 to $50,000. [2]

While it is theoretically possible to achieve the same amount of revenue (i.e., revenue neutrality) under Romney’s proposals, it would be challenging and would require significantly cutting very popular deductions. [3] Four deductions account for 80% of all deductions and credits; in order of size they are the deductions for 1) home mortgage interest, 2) state and local taxes paid, 3) real estate taxes paid, and 4) charitable contributions. If an across the board cut to deductions were used to offset the loss in revenue, Romney would have to cut all these deductions by about one-third. Clearly, this would be unpopular and would also hit the middle class as well as high income families.

Romney has also proposed eliminating the estate tax, while Obama proposes maintaining an estate tax on estates over $3.5 million. Romney has also stated that he will increase the military budget. Here again, Obama’s proposal clearly reduces the deficit and these Romney proposals would clearly increase the deficit. The benefits of eliminating the estate tax, of course, go to wealthy families.

With a backdrop of 30 years of decreasing income tax rates that have seen dramatic increases in income and wealth in our best-off households and middle class families struggling to keep their heads above water, further cuts in tax rates do not seem at all likely to reverse this trend or benefit the middle class. Further, to provide some perspective on Romney’s proposal, looking at the cuts in tax rates alone, a family with taxable income of $100,000 or less, whose tax rate is cut from 25% to 20%, would see a benefit of $5,000 or less. A family with taxable income of $1 million, whose rate is cut from 35% to 28%, would see a benefit of $70,000; and if income is $10 million, a benefit of $700,000. This just doesn’t seem fair, especially on top of the huge tax cuts these high income households have seen over the last 30 years.

In addition, Romney’s proposal maintains lower rates on all unearned income (i.e., capital gains, dividends, and interest), while Obama’s has lower rates only on long-term capital gains (i.e., investments held for over one year). Having lower rates on all unearned income also doesn’t seem fair, especially given that the great bulk of unearned income goes to high income, high wealth households. Moreover, one of Romney’s arguments for lower tax rates is that by letting taxpayers keep more of what they earn, they will be rewarded for working. If we want to reward work, then income tax rates on work, namely earned income, should be lower (not higher) than the rates on non-work (unearned) income.

Finally, Romney’s assertion that cuts in tax rates will spur economic growth does not have any credible evidence. [4] This rationale has been used for the tax rate cuts that have occurred over the last 30 years. The strongest economic growth of the past 30 years (and the only elimination of the federal government’s deficit) occurred under President Clinton when he increased tax rates on high incomes. Furthermore, the rationale for tax cuts spurring growth has been that they put more money in consumers’ pockets and, with consumer spending being two-thirds of our economy, their spending will grow the economy. However, Romney has said his tax cuts will be offset by reducing deductions so that there will be no loss in government revenue or increase in the deficit. Therefore, there is no increase in the money in consumers’ pockets and no increased spending to spur economic growth.

If Romney’s tax cuts are indeed offset by reducing deductions so the result is revenue neutral, and if he lives up to his commitment to cap federal government spending at 20% of the overall economy (i.e., of gross domestic product), which would require significant spending cuts, Romney’s plans are likely to lead to job losses and a recession, not economic growth. Overall, Obama’s budget and tax proposals are highly likely to do more to spur near-term growth in jobs and the economy than Romney’s. [5]

In conclusion, Obama’s tax and budget proposals do take steps that can be reasonably expected to reduce the deficit by about one-quarter. Romney’s proposals cannot be reasonably expected to reduce the deficit. Furthermore, they are likely to increase the deficit and the already high levels of inequality in income and wealth.

[1] Tax Policy Center, Oct. 2012, “Major tax proposals by President Obama and Governor Romney”

[2] Wirzbicki, A., & Borchers, C., 10/5/12, “Questions on challenger’s idea to cap tax deductions,” The Boston Globe

[3] Kranish, M., 9/21/12, “Candidates leave much unsaid on tax plans,” The Boston Globe

[4] Rowland, C., 10/15/12, “GOP faith unshaken in supply-side tax policies,” The Boston Globe

[5] Bivens, J., & Fieldhouse, A., 9/26/12, “Who would promote job growth most in the near term?” The Century Foundation

PRIVATIZATION EXAMPLES I

ABSTRACT: Currently, privatization of public sector functions is being looked to to generate badly needed immediate cash. First example: the city of Chicago, desperate for cash to cover a budget shortfall, sold its parking meter revenue for the next 75 years for $1.2 billion. Parking rates in some neighborhoods have quadrupled. The city is prohibited from engaging in any activity that could be competition for the parking meters and has to reimburse the private owners for any lost revenue due to a street closing, a meter being out of commission, and free parking provided to the disabled. Chicago has given up the ability to make decisions about parking for 75 years and appears to have in effect guaranteed substantial profits to the private investors.

Second example: Indiana received $3.8 billion in 2006 from an international consortium in exchange for the right to maintain, operate, and collect tolls for 75 years on 157 miles of Interstate 90. The 400 page lease agreement is indicative of both the thought that went into it and the complexity of such an arrangement.

A danger in these high-value, long-term privatization deals is that sophisticated investors will take advantage of government officials desperate for short-term revenue, who often don’t take the time or have the expertise to perform appropriate, long-term, cost-benefit analyses. Because of their significant impact on the public, any privatization deal should require public hearings, and those with a longer time span than the term of office of the person signing it should require super-majority approval (say 2/3) by the relevant legislative body, while those over 10 years should require a voter referendum with a super-majority (say 2/3) needed for approval.

FULL POST: In my previous post (10/16/12), I provided an overview of privatization of public sector functions and evidence that there’s no guarantee of improved performance. Privatization doesn’t always meet its stated goals of saving taxpayers’ money, improving public services, and/or increasing accountability. It only tends to be successful if there is good oversight and regulation, as well as real competition.

Currently, privatization is being looked to, not for those traditional reasons, but to generate badly needed immediate cash. This is occurring because the public sector is being squeezed by falling revenues (largely due to the recession and in some cases due to tax cuts) and rising costs (generally due to inflation). Here are two examples of privatization to raise immediate cash.

First, in 2009, the city of Chicago, desperate for cash to cover a budget shortfall, sold its parking meter revenue for the next 75 years for $1.2 billion. The private consortium of investors was led by the huge Wall Street financial corporation, Morgan Stanley (one of the companies responsible for the collapse of the financial sector and the recession that contributed to Chicago’s severe budget shortfall).

The deal will allow the private owners to increase parking fees substantially and parking rates in some neighborhoods have quadrupled. [1] It prohibits the city from any activity, such as building a new parking garage, that could be competition for the parking meters. The city has to reimburse the private owners for any lost revenue due to a street closing for repairs or a street festival. If a meter is out of commission for six hours, the city must reimburse the owners for a full day’s worth of revenue. In May 2012, the private owners had billed the city for $50 million for reimbursements for out of service meters and free parking provided to the disabled. [2]

Not only will this deal cost Chicago substantial money for 75 years, it also means it has given up the ability to make decisions about parking and its cost for 75 years. Furthermore, it appears to have in effect guaranteed substantial profits to the private investors, as there is no competition and little risk.

Second, Indiana received $3.8 billion in 2006 from an international consortium in exchange for the right to maintain, operate, and collect tolls for 75 years on 157 miles of Interstate 90 as it crosses Indiana. The 400 page lease agreement has limits on toll increases, requires the state to reimburse the private owners if tolls are waived during an emergency (such as a natural disaster), and covers details such as how quickly the consortium must remove dead animals from the highway. While the length of the agreement is indicative of both the thought that went into it and the complexity of such an arrangement, it is hard to imagine that every issue that could come up in 75 years has been identified.

In the short run, with the economy in recession and traffic down on the highway, it appears that Indiana taxpayers are coming out ahead. Indiana wisely used the funds for investments in infrastructure rather than short-term spending. [3] But it’s only six years into a 75 year lease and lots can happen over that time. For example, if traffic levels don’t increase and the consortium of owners goes into bankruptcy or defaults on their debt, what will happen? Could a bankruptcy court throw out the limits on toll increases?

Experiences with highway privatization in California, Virginia, and San Diego have all had significant problems. These privatization contracts are typically long-term, generally limit competition, and, therefore, result in significant limits on future public decisions and policies. [4]

A danger in these high-value, long-term privatization deals is that sophisticated investors and corporations will take advantage of government officials desperate for short-term revenue, who often don’t take the time or have the expertise to perform appropriate, long-term, cost-benefit analyses. A 75 year commitment clearly goes long beyond the longevity in office of the public officials who make the deal and it’s hard to believe that such a deal can be known to be in the public’s best interest over that time span.

“[P]rivatization can undermine good public policy and democratic decision making. Turning tax dollars and control of public services over to companies whose overriding incentive is to maximize profits can lead to long-term costs and sometimes devastating consequences.” (p. 4) [5]

Because of their significant impact on the public – on public services, on public policy and flexibility, on accountability, and on transparency – I would suggest that any privatization deal should require public hearings before (and after) the fact. Furthermore, those with a longer time span than the term of office of the person signing it should require super-majority approval (say 2/3) by the relevant legislative body. Privatization contracts of over 10 years should require a voter referendum with a super-majority (say 2/3) needed for approval.

[1] Rusnak, K., retrieved 10/21/12, “Privatization plans lack long-term focus,” economyincrisis.org/content//privatization-plans-lack-long-term-focus

[2] People for the American Way, retrieved 7/31/12, “Predatory privatization: Exploiting financial hardship, enriching the 1 percent, undermining democracy,” http://www.pfaw.org

[3] Daniels, M., 5/10/12, “Indiana didn’t ‘sell’ its toll road,” The Washington Post

[4] Dannin, E., 3/15/11, “The toll road to serfdom,” American Constitution Society (www.acslaw.org/acsblog/node/18553)

[5] People for the American Way, retrieved 7/31/12,, see above

AN OVERVIEW OF PRIVATIZATION

ABSTRACT: Privatization of public services or “outsourcing” has been promoted for decades as a way to save taxpayers money, improve public services, and increase public sector accountability. A resurgence is occurring as the public sector is being squeezed by falling revenues and rising costs. In this environment, privatization is often looked to to generate badly needed cash immediately. As a result, privatization is big business these days.

As background for a detailed look at current privatization activity, municipal level privatization has been used significantly and studied quite extensively, especially for water and sewer systems and for solid waste collection and disposal. From 1997 – 2002, more services were brought back in house or deprivatized than were outsourced. Services were deprivatized because of unsatisfactory results. Most studies of water, sewer, and solid waste privatization (21 of 35) found no cost or efficiency difference between public or private delivery. The other 14 studies were split.

Competition and careful monitoring are required to obtain benefits from privatization and to ensure that profit maximization doesn’t result in a loss of quality. A review of privatization by The Century Foundation [1] states that “public monopoly or government regulation is a more effective approach to ensuring efficient service delivery than privatization or deregulation.”

The delivery of public services must incorporate the fact that citizens are more than consumers. They frequently want to be engaged and have a voice. Public services are not just part of a market but part of a community.

FULL POST: Privatization of public services or “outsourcing” has been promoted for decades as a way to save taxpayers money, improve public services, and increase public sector accountability. A resurgence is occurring as the public sector is being squeezed by falling revenues and rising costs, much of which are due to inflation. In this environment, privatization is often looked to not for the traditional reasons of saving money or improving services and accountability, but to generate badly needed cash immediately. In this environment, privatization of public assets (e.g., buildings, parking facilities, roads, and land), which has been used in the past to cover short-term cash problems, has taken on new importance.

The privatization resurgence is bolstered by rhetoric from the right, which favors smaller government, and by lobbying from corporations, which are always looking for new ways to make profits.

As a result, privatization is big business these days. Wall Street firms and the big management consulting companies have public sector or public private partnership business divisions to pursue privatization deals. Financial corporations are setting up “Infrastructure Funds” that create pools of money to buy privatization deals as investments. Over $100 billion is available to Infrastructure Funds run by large financial corporations such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.

As background for a detailed look at current privatization activity, municipal level privatization has been used significantly since the 1960s and surged in the 1990s. It has been studied quite extensively, especially for water and sewer systems and for solid waste collection and disposal. These studies have tracked privatization, the contracting out of services, and deprivatization, the bringing of services back in house into the public sector. An overall review of privatization of 67 basic local services with a focus on water, sewer, and waste services was conducted by The Century Foundation. [2]

Up until 1997, privatization of water, sewer, and waste services was growing, but from 1997 – 2002 more services were brought back in house or deprivatized than were outsourced. The reasons for deprivatization were tracked. In 2002, among 245 cases of deprivatization the following reasons were given, including multiple reasons in many cases:

Service quality not satisfactory 73% of cases
Cost savings insufficient 51%
In house efficiency improved 36%
Problems with contract monitoring or specifications 35%

In summary, services were deprivatized because of unsatisfactory results. Furthermore, despite the fact the privatization is promoted as reducing costs and saving taxpayers money, most studies of water, sewer, and solid waste privatization (21 of 35) found no cost or efficiency difference between public or private delivery. The other 14 studies were split with 9 of the 35 finding private delivery cheaper or more efficient and 5 finding public delivery cheaper or more efficient.

The Century Foundation report notes that competition and careful monitoring are required to obtain benefits from privatization and to ensure that profit maximization doesn’t result in a loss of quality. However, it noted that in many cases, such as water and sewer services, there was no competition and privatization merely substituted a private monopoly for a public one. The report states that “public monopoly or government regulation is a more effective approach to ensuring efficient service delivery than privatization or deregulation.” (page 12)

The delivery of public services, even when privatized, must incorporate the fact that citizens are more than consumers. They frequently want to be engaged and have a voice in what, how, and the quality with which services are delivered. From a citizen’s perspective, more than just efficiency is involved; safety, reliability, transparency, and other values; local control; public accountability; and community identity can all be important. Public services are not just part of a market but part of a community.

Future posts will build on this overview and review specific examples of current and proposed privatization of public services and assets.

[1] The Century Foundation describes itself as a progressive, non-partisan think tank, founded in 1919. It convenes and promotes the best thinkers and thinking across a range of public policy questions and produces timely and critical analyses of major economic, political, and social institutions and issues.

[2] Warner, M., 2009, “Local government infrastructure and the false promise of privatization,” The Century Foundation, http://government.cce.cornell.edu/doc/pdf/Warner_2009_TCF.pdf

THE FINANCIAL TRANSACTION TAX

ABSTRACT: A financial transaction tax (FTT) could generate $350 to $500 billion of revenue per year by applying a very low tax rate to financial transactions. The US had a financial transaction tax from 1914 to 1966 and 40 other countries have such a tax. It would not only generate needed revenue, it would also provide a disincentive for high volume, short-term, speculative trading. It has been dubbed “The Robin Hood Tax” (see www.robinhoodtax.org).

Multiple bills to create a FTT have been introduced in Congress, one of which, HR 6411, would rebate the tax to households with incomes under $75,000. It is also aligned with a broad, international campaign for the FTT.

FULL POST: As presented in my previous post (9/29/12), a financial transaction tax (FTT) could generate $350 to $500 billion of revenue per year by applying a very low tax rate to financial transactions. This would in effect be a sales tax on Wall St. transactions.

The US had a financial transaction tax from 1914 to 1966 and 40 other countries have such a tax. The US tax on purchases and sales of stock was 0.04% (40 cents on a $1,000 transaction). Currently, the US has a very small 0.0034% tax (3.4 cents per $1,000) that is levied on stock transactions to support the operating costs of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which regulates financial markets. However, much of the revenue is being diverted to other purposes. [1]

A financial transaction tax would not only generate needed revenue, it would also provide a disincentive for high volume, short-term, speculative trading. Such trading produces profits for speculators, but no benefit for the overall economy. It actually harms the economy by contributing to increased market volatility and increased prices for commodities such as food and gasoline (see blog post 3/5/12).

The financial transaction tax has been dubbed “The Robin Hood Tax” and is being supported by National Nurses United (www.nationalnursesunited.org) and others (see www.robinhoodtax.org). Multiple bills to create a FTT have been introduced in Congress. One is House bill HR 6411, The Inclusive Prosperity Act. It would impose a 0.5% tax on stock trades ($5 per $1,000) and a lesser rate on other financial transactions (e.g., trading of bonds, currencies, and derivatives). The tax would be rebated to households with incomes under $75,000. It would generate an estimated $350 billion per year that could be used for deficit reduction or social and human needs, as recommended in the bill. It is aligned with a broad, international campaign for the FTT, including a very active effort in the European Union. The international campaign includes a specific focus on using revenue generated to address climate change and global health issues. [2]

[1] Wikipedia, retrieved 9/28/12, “Financial transaction tax,” en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_transaction_tax

[2] Vanden Heuvel, K., 9/26/12, “The better bargain: Transaction tax, not austerity,” The Nation