Whenever a proposal to raise the minimum wage is put forth, especially one for a significant increase such as to $15 per hour (the current federal minimum wage is $7.25), the business community and its allies among elected officials immediately warn that there would be dramatic negative effects on the number of jobs and the growth of the economy.
However, there is no actual evidence that raising the minimum wage to $15 over the course of a few years would reduce the number of jobs or slow economic growth. These assertions by the business sector are pure speculation based on the economic theory of ideal markets (which don’t exist in reality). The warnings are meant to create fear among voters and elected officials, and therefore foster opposition to increasing the minimum wage.
Past increases in the minimum wage have not led to increases in unemployment. In January 1950, the minimum wage was increased 87.5% (from $.40 to $.75). Over the next 15 months, the unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 3.1%. A similar result occurred after a 33.3% increase in the minimum wage in March 1956. A study by the NY Department of Labor found that after six of eight increases in New York’s minimum wage between 1991 and 2015 employment increased.
When San Jose increased its minimum wage by $2 in 2013, the business community and particularly restaurants and small businesses predicted disaster. However, new business registrations grew and unemployment fell, including in the restaurant and hospitality sector where 4,000 jobs were added over the next year. 
Washington State has the highest minimum wage in the country at $9.47, and it applies to tipped workers. (This is four and a half times the federal minimum wage for tipped workers of $2.13.) And yet Seattle has the second highest concentration of restaurants per capita in the country (behind only San Francisco, where the city’s minimum wage is even higher). Washington State also boasts the highest rate of small-business job growth in the country.
In 2014, when Seattle raised its city minimum wage to $15, the restaurant industry and the business sector predictably claimed that disaster would follow. But six months later, Seattle’s restaurant industry was growing faster than ever. And in early 2016, Washington State was first in the country in job and wage growth.
International comparisons demonstrate that a high minimum wage does not reduce the number of low paying jobs or increase the unemployment rate of low-education workers. Among 18 countries with advanced economies, the U.S. has the highest proportion of low-wage jobs (25%) but only an average employment rate for low-education workers (57%). In other words, having lots of low-wage jobs in the U.S. has not led to high employment among workers with low levels of education.
It is the presence of a high minimum wage and collective bargaining for workers that explains the presence of jobs with good wages in other countries. Furthermore, most of the 18 other countries have stronger social supports for workers and families than the U.S. in areas such as health care, housing, education, and especially child care. The lower minimum wage and weaker social supports in the U.S. reflect the lack of political power of ordinary workers in America. 
It has been seven years since the federal minimum wage was raised to $7.25. That’s seven years without a raise for many workers, while housing, food, and health care costs have risen. Not since the 1930s has the American workforce experienced such a low-wage and insecure labor market. Relatively high unemployment and very high under-employment, as well as the rise of part-time and contingent jobs with their uncertain incomes, are the symptoms of insecure jobs.
Today’s low wages (which have been declining with inflation) and job insecurity are largely the result of decreased union membership and weakened government regulation of the labor market. As Adam Smith wrote over 200 years ago, if workers negotiate wages and working conditions individually with employers, employers will always have the upper hand.
In competitive markets for goods and services, without government regulation (such as a strong minimum wage law) and collective bargaining for workers, the job market becomes a race to the bottom. Employers will drive down wages, benefits, and working conditions to maximize competitiveness and profits.
This is what has happened in the U.S. since 1968 as government regulation and union membership have declined. Using 1968 as the reference point, today’s current federal minimum wage of $7.25 would be:
- $9.63 if it had kept up with inflation; (In other words, the minimum wage today has roughly 25% less purchasing power than it had in 1968.)
- $11.35 if it had kept up with the average wage in the economy; or
- $18.85 if it had kept up with the improvement in workers’ productivity.  (In other words, the value of the increased production of today’s workers over those of 1968 is not getting paid to the workers but is going to managers and investors or shareholders.)
So, the truth about increasing the minimum wage is that it doesn’t increase unemployment and slow economic growth. In fact, the opposite may occur. Furthermore, there are many benefits to increasing the minimum wage (which I’ll discuss in my next post) that outweigh any possible negative effects.
 Hanauer, N., Summer 2016, “Confronting the parasite economy,” The American Prospect
 Howell, D.R., Summer 2016, “Reframing the minimum-wage debate,” The American Prospect
 Cooper, D., 7/25/16, “The federal minimum wage has been eroded by decades of inaction,” The Economic Policy Institute (http://www.epi.org/publication/the-federal-minimum-wage-has-been-eroded-by-decades-of-inaction/)