THE EFFECTS OF THE FEDERAL TAX CUT

The initial effects of the federal tax cuts enacted in December 2017 by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are now visible; they are not what their Republican architects promised.

Although it’s too early to know definitively if the tax cuts will have an effect on the overall economy, growth in the first quarter of 2018 was steady but not noteworthy. There is no evidence of the tax-cut-fueled acceleration of economic growth the Republicans promised. [1] The latest projections, as well as experiences elsewhere, strongly suggest that the effects on economic growth will be small at best.

The effects of the tax cut on the deficit are becoming clearer. The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) are that the federal government’s revenue will be reduced by $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years. When the costs of paying interest on the growing debt are included, the CBO projects that the cumulative deficit will increase by $1.9 trillion over the period from 2018 to 2028 due to the tax cuts, despite the Republicans’ promise of no increase in the deficit. [2] Furthermore, the growth in the deficit will be exacerbated by the spending bill that was enacted in early 2018, which increases spending by $300 million over the next two years.

The CBO projects the federal government’s deficit will be $804 billion for fiscal year 2018, up 21% from 2017. Furthermore, it projects the deficit will be over $1 trillion a year by 2020, despite President Trump’s campaign promise to eliminate the deficit. From 2021 to 2028, the CBO estimates the deficits will average 4.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total of all economic activity in the U.S. This is higher than at any time since World War II, except during the Great Recession of 2008 – 2009 when tax revenue slumped with the collapsing economy and spending was high to bail out Wall St. and to stimulate the economy.

The growing deficit reflects the gap between what the Republicans who control the federal government want to spend and their unwillingness to enact the taxes necessary to pay for it. This is blatant fiscal irresponsibility. Moreover, growing deficits are of serious concern when the economy is doing well and unemployment is low. In this situation, many economists and responsible officials recommend reducing the deficit and even generating a surplus, as President Clinton did, so that the country has the capacity to weather the next economic downturn.

Analysis of the individual tax cuts finds that the wealthiest households will receive the biggest tax cuts, both in terms of dollars and percentage increase in after-tax income. Households with incomes under $25,000 will receive an average tax cut of $40. Meanwhile, those with incomes from $49,000 to $86,000 will receive an average tax cut of about $800, those with incomes of $308,000 to $733,000 will get about $11,200, and those with incomes over $733,000 will get a tax cut of about $33,000. [3]

As an example of the benefits of the corporate tax cuts, the six biggest, multi-national banking corporations (JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America) together paid at least $3.6 billion less in taxes for the first quarter of 2018 than they would have without the 2017 tax cut law. Before the tax cut, these corporations had paid 28% to 31% of their income in taxes; for the first quarter of 2018 they paid between 17.2% and 23.7%. Their tax rate is estimated to be 20% – 22% for the full year, meaning they will receive a tax cut of $19 billion for this year. [4] By the way, the tax cut law also provides benefits, and therefore incentives, to corporations to move jobs and profits overseas to dodge U.S. income taxes. [5]

The Economic Policy Institute projects that roughly 80% of the benefits of the corporate tax cuts will be passed on to shareholders and executives, and not used to pay employees or re-invest in the business. Although some corporations gave small raises or bonuses to their workers – thanks to intense public visibility and pressure – a huge chunk of the tax cut has been used to buy back company stock.

In just the four months since the tax cuts were enacted in December, corporations have announced more than $250 billion in stock buybacks. This rewards stockholders and executives as it pushes up the price of the corporation’s stock. These buyback announcements are an acceleration from an already record-high, $5.1 trillion of buybacks over the previous decade. Virtually all the profits of the country’s 500 largest corporations from 2005 to 2015 went to share buybacks and dividends, and not to workers’ wages or investments that would increase productivity, both of which have stagnated. [6]

Stock buybacks give huge rewards to corporate executives because much of their compensation is paid in shares of stock. For example, the CEO of Wells Fargo bank got a $4.6 million raise for the year due to the increase in the corporation’s stock price from stock buybacks.

Stock buybacks were illegal until 1982, which is roughly (and probably not wholly coincidentally) the same time wages stopped rising for most Americans. Before then, a bigger share of corporate profits was used to increase workers’ wages and re-invest in the business, rather than for less economically productive stock buybacks. [7]

Some corporations have announced bonuses or pay increases for workers. However, so far these announcements have applied to only 4.1% of workers and roughly 80% of them are one-time bonuses not on-going pay increases, even though the corporations’ tax cuts are permanent and on-going. [8] In some cases, the workers have not received (and may never receive) actual increases in pay. For example, some corporations have made the pay increases the subject of negotiations with unions. Corporations have announced spending 42 times as much on stock buybacks as on increases in employees’ pay. [9]

To put all this in some perspective, it is estimated that the Koch brothers, extremely wealthy corporate executives, will see their incomes increase by about $27 million per week or $1.4 billion per year. Not coincidentally, they have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into Republican election campaigns over the last four years. Meanwhile, the few workers lucky enough to get a pay increase are typically getting, at most, a one-time bonus of a few hundred or maybe a thousand dollars for the year. [10]

I encourage you to contact your U.S. Representative and Senators and to ask them to support the Reward Work Act. This bill would significantly limit stock buybacks, give employees of publicly traded corporations the power to elect one-third of the corporation’s Board of Directors, and force corporations to use their tax cuts to reward their workers, instead of executives and stockholders.

You can find your US Representative’s name and contact information at: http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/. You can find your US Senators’ names and contact information at: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm.

[1]      Horowitz, E., 4/28/18, “So far, tax cuts aren’t noticeably driving growth,” The Boston Globe

[2]      Stein, J., 4/9/18, “Deficit to top $1 trillion per year by 2020, CBO says,” The Washington Post

[3]      Sammartino, F., Stallworth, P., & Weiner, D., 3/28/18, “The effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual income tax provisions across income groups and across the states,” Tax Policy Center (http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/effect-tcja-individual-income-tax-provisions-across-income-groups-and-across-states/full)

[4]      Sweet, K., 4/20/18, “Big banks saved $3.6 billion in taxes last quarter under new law,” Associated Press

[5]      Thomhave, K., “Even the CBO says the GOP tax reform will incentivize corporate offshoring,” The American Prospect (http://prospect.org/article/even-cbo-says-gop-tax-reform-will-incentivize-corporate-offshoring)

[6]      Heath, T., 4/13/18, “America’s biggest companies are announcing buybacks. But whose cash is it, anyway?” The Washington Post

[7]      Reich, R., 3/21/18, “The buyback boondoggle is beggaring America,” The American Prospect (http://prospect.org/article/buyback-boondoggle-beggaring-america)

[8]      Madrid, M., 4/13/18, “Waiting — and waiting– for corporate tax cuts to deliver those wage hikes,” The American Prospect (http://prospect.org/article/waiting-and-waiting-corporate-tax-cuts-deliver-those-wage-hikes)

[9]      Americans for Tax Fairness, retrieved 4/28/18, “Trump tax cut truths,” (https://americansfortaxfairness.org/trumptaxcuttruths/)

[10]     Hoxie, J., 4/18/18, “Five tax myths debunked,” Institute for Policy Studies (http://otherwords.org/five-tax-myths-debunked/)